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Barcelona, 6 November 2009 - The emission reduction commitments made by countries in the Copenhagen climate negotiation session ending today in Barcelona are still far less ambitious than those needed to limit global warming to 2°C, let alone 1.5°C, according to a new science-based assessment system called the “Climate Action Tracker”. Launched today by Ecofys, Climate Analytics and the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), the web-based “Climate Action Tracker” provides a picture of each country’s proposed commitments and actions and how these contribute to total greenhouse gas emission reductions.

“Developed country emission reductions as a whole are currently projected to be 8-12% below 1990 levels by 2020 after accounting for forestry credits, rather than the 25-40% reductions described as necessary by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). The less ambitious reduction (8%) is unconditional for most countries and the more ambitious reduction (12%) is linked by most countries to a strong agreement in Copenhagen– even this however is far from the IPCC reduction ranges for developed countries” said Dr. Michiel Schaeffer of Climate Analytics.

“It’s encouraging that the actions proposed by the developing countries currently on the table could lead to a reduction in the growth of emissions of 5-20% below “business as usual emissions” in 2020, compared to the 15-30% needed by 2020 to limit global warming to 2°C or even lower. According to our assessment in the “Climate Action Tracker” developing countries such as Mexico, China, Indonesia, Brazil, are proposing to reduce the growth of their emissions by the 2020s” said Dr. Niklas Höhne of Ecofys.

“With over 80 of the world's poorest and most vulnerable countries calling for global warming to be limited to 1.5°C and with the European Union, the United States and others calling for warming to be limited to 2°C, it’s clear that the Copenhagen commitments which are currently on the table are insufficient. After accounting for forestry credits that developed countries want, the effective target by 2020 for developed countries would be only 3-7% more than the original Kyoto target of a 5% reduction by 2010”, said Dr. (h.c.) Bill Hare of the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research.

The Climate Action Tracker enables the public to track the emission commitments and actions of countries. The website provides an up-to-date assessment of individual country pledges about greenhouse gas emission reductions. It also plots the consequences for the global climate of commitments and actions made ahead of and during the Copenhagen Climate Summit.

The Climate Action Tracker reveals large differences between the ambition levels of countries when it comes to reducing greenhouse gas emissions. In the lead are the Maldives and Costa Rica, which have proposed to become climate-neutral in by around 2020. At the high end of the scale is Norway, which is proposing to reduce its emissions by 40% compared to 1990 levels by 2020. Norway is joined in the “sufficient” range (according to the methodology used) by Japan and Switzerland. In the “medium” range are developing countries such as Mexico, China, Indonesia, Brazil, who propose to reduce the growth of their emissions by the 2020s. The EU is a special case, in that its unconditional commitment is rated “inadequate”. However, if its 30% reduction target were to be adopted, the EU would move into the “medium” range very close to “sufficient”. Between the middle and the bottom of the scale is the United States, whose proposed actions are “inadequate” to fall within the range that is needed to keep global warming within lower limits. At the very bottom end of the scale are countries that have yet to propose substantial action beyond “business as usual”. These include Belarus, Russia and Ukraine.

The Climate Action Tracker shows that much greater transparency is needed when it comes to targets and actions proposed by countries. For developed countries, accounting for forests and land used change significantly degrades the overall stringency of the targets. For developing countries climate plans often lack calculations of the resulting impact on emissions.

You can find the Climate Action Tracker at www.climateactiontracker.org. Ecofys and Climate Analytics are both research organizations that specialize in energy and climate-related issues.

Note for the editor

For further information, not for publication.
Ecofys
Yvonne Kettmann
T:   +49 221 270 70 110
E:   climateactiontracker@ecofys.com

About the Climate Action Tracker team
Dr. Niklas Höhne – Director of Energy and Climate Policy at Ecofys and lead author at the IPCC developed, together with Dr. Michel den Elzen from MNP, the table in the IPCC report that is the basis for the reduction range of -25% to -40% below 1990 levels by 2020 that is currently being discussed for Annex I countries. The team at Ecofys includes: Katja Eisbrenner, Christian Ellermann, Markus Hagemann, Sara Moltmann and others.

Dr. Michiel Schaeffer – Co-Director and Senior Scientist – led the project team at Climate Analytics, involving Policy Analyst Kirsten Macey and others.

Dr. Claudine Chen works on the PRIMAP model at the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impacts Research (PIK), along with Julia Nabel and other members of the PRIMAP team (www.primap.org). Dr Bill Hare (PIK and Climate Analytics) was a lead author of the IPCC Fourth Assessment Report and is the co-leader of the PRIMAP team, with Dr. Malte Meinshausen at PIK.

About Ecofys – www.ecofys.com
Ecofys is a leading knowledge and innovation company that operates in the field of renewable energy, energy efficiency and climate change. We deliver research and service solutions from product development to implementation management. Our clients are energy companies, financial institutions and corporate businesses, governments and local authorities, international institutions, project developers, housing associations, building companies and energy consumers around the world.

About Climate Analytics – www.climateanalytics.org
CLIMATE ANALYTICS GmbH is a non-profit organization based in Potsdam, Germany.
CLIMATE ANALYTICS has been established to synthesize climate science and policy research that is relevant for international climate policy negotiations. It aims to provide scientific, policy and analytical support for Small Island States (SIDS) and the least developed country group (LDCs) negotiators, as well as non-governmental organisations and other stakeholders in the ‘post-2012’ negotiations. Furthermore, it assists in building in-house capacity within SIDS and LDCs.

About Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK)

www.pik-potsdam.de
The PIK conducts research into global climate change and issues of sustainable development. Set up in 1992, the Institute is regarded as a pioneer in interdisciplinary research and as one of the world's leading establishments in this field. Scientists, economists and social scientists work together, investigating how the earth is changing as a system, studying the ecological, economic and social consequences of climate change, and assessing which strategies are appropriate for sustainable development.